Sample City (August, 2090, RCP 8.5): 14 climate change models, ranked by projected temperature increase
For a given emissions scenario, there is still uncertainty in how the future climate will evolve due to model limitations and the chaotic nature of the climate system. For this reason, it is important to look at an ensemble of climate projections, rather than a single projection, in order to see the range of possible climatic outcomes they encompass.
The graph shows the percentile distribution for the mean temperature increase in Sample City in August, 2090, assuming the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. Half of the projections in the ensemble project an increase of less than 5.5°C, and half project an increase of more than 5.5°C. Physical consistency between the weather variables being adjusted is maintained by preserving the association between the offsets for each variable produced by each model. The resulting sets of offsets are ordered based on the increase in mean daily temperature.